Rat's Nest |
Bloggage, rants, and occasional notes of despair |
The idea of a "wall" between Israel and the Arabs in Judea and Samaria has merit. It also has some disturbing implications, however, and I think that we might do well to look at them before settling on this policy.
The principal advocate (not necessarily in the sense of believing it, but certainly in the sense of putting it forward) of this idea in the blogosphere is
Tony Adragna. Let us look at some of what he has said.In his most recent article on the idea, he wrote [quoting me!]:
Now, Adragna stipulates that: The Israelis are going to have to give up the political in order to finally have some semblance of secure borders.The question becomes then: is the "Green Line" established in 1948 secure? If not, where should the borders be drawn? And, wherever we draw these borders, what of those dwelling on either side of them?That is the all important question. I don't have an answer, and I think that it's a question that Israelis and Palestinians are going to have to settle between themselves once they finally decide to make peace. But, the border that I'm talking about "securing" is the one that exists right now (remember, the West Bank is still not a part of Israel - there is a border that Israel recognizes as the limit of "sovereign Israel").
That border is essentially the 1948 "Green Line", plus the Golan and East Jerusalem. I have no more idea than Adragna whether that border is defensible (a case can be made that no border west of the Jordan River is), but let us assume for the sake of discussion that it is.
Now, Adragna states that the fortified border must be essentially closed (and he implies, although he does not state, that it must be closed in both directions). I would not go quite so far here; the fortified boundary, it seems to me, would be serving the purposes of China’s Great Wall or, even more precisely, of the Roman limes (of which the most famous, but by no means the only, examples are the Hadrianic and Antonine Walls in Britain). The dual purposes of the limes were to allow the Romans to control the influx of the barbari beyond them in times of peace, and to serve as a fortified base (not a purely defensive line) in times of war. Thus, there might – there almost certainly would – be accesses through checkpoints in the "Green Wall", but such would be entirely under Israeli control. Moreover, a "Green Wall" would serve as the IDF’s forward line of defense, and its jumping-off point for offensive operations, should the Arabs resume any form of warfare in the future.
(One thing that should be made clear here: I am not, and I very much doubt that Adragna is, talking about fortifications limited to, or even necessarily incorporating, a physical wall. Such would useless against, e.g,, aerial or airborne assault.)
In the short run, of course, it must be as Adragna says: no enemy alien (and all "Palestinians" must be viewed as "enemy aliens" in this context) must be allowed across the "Green Wall". As he correctly notes, there is no way to distinguish a terrorist supporting Arafat from a moderate that repudiates him by appearance alone. This will have a devastating effect on the economies of both Israel, and even more so, of the Judea-Samaria area (that should and would have been the Republic of Palestine, had they not been occupied and annexed by Abdallah I of Jordan). Israel must now get used to doing its own scut work; the Arabs must get used to doing without that employment and money (which, exiguous as it is, may loom much larger if subsidies from Sa’udi Arabia and the Gulf emirates are cut or cut off – one way or another).
Hadrian’s Wall was, IIRC, 77 (English) miles in length, and manned (at the Empire’s height) by one legion and its associated auxiliary troops – about 10,000 soldiers. I have no idea if manning ratios should be the same (perhaps
Sgt. Stryker could weigh in here), but, as that is the only number that I have right now, I’ll run with it – there should be about 130 armed troops per mile. The CIA World Factbook 2001 gives the land boundaries of Israel at 1,006 km (== 625 miles), so that we would need about 81,000 combat infantry to reinforce the "Green Wall". Obviously, the logistical "tail" of an army has grown very much since the time of the Roman Empire; OTOH, modern sensors and weapons very likely mean that a much lower manning ratio is permissible. I shall assume that this is all a wash. The level of military manpower needed is a bit high; an aggressive program of military recruitment (including, perhaps, mercenaries), combined with a high economic growth rate would be necessary to support this effort – by no means undoable, but something that Israelis must keep their eyes on.This article is getting a bit long, so I will close it with this question: what would the military, economic, and cultural consequences, successful or not, of a "Green Wall" tell us about the consequences of a "Rio Grande Wall".
John "Akatsukami" Braue Tuesday, April 09, 2002