Posted by S.M. Stirling (yes, that S.M. Stirling) to the stirling mailing list:
The latest population projections have been ratcheted down yet again; world TFR (Total Fertility Rate) is now 2.8 -- only 0.7 above replacement level, and will probably hit 2.1 by no later than 2020, possibly as early as 2015.
This is due to very rapid, and accelerating, declines in the TFR of the underdeveloped areas.
Current estimates based on a continuation of present trends see the world's population topping out at about 7 billion within the next 30 years, and then declining. Gradually at first, and then with ever-accelerating speed.
NB: the UN estimates were, until this year, extremely unrealistic because they presupposed that countries with TFR's below 2.1 would increase to that levels, and that countries with declining TFR's would fall to 2.1 and then hold there.
In fact, the "floor" for TFR's seems to be about 1.0, and there's every indication that the developing countries' TFRs will pass right through 2.1 and keep falling.
This has some interesting implications.
Eg., the US has an unusually high TFR, at almost exactly 2.1, and it's been increasing slightly rather than falling, partly due to the immigration of young adults, and partly due to somewhat sharper increases in the birth rate among longer-established groups.
American TFR is now sharply higher than that of most of East Asia -- considerably above China's for example -- and higher than much of Latin America's. Mexico's TFR is now 2.4, and Brazil's is 2.0 It's even higher than much of the Middle East; Tunisia's TFR is 1.99, Turkey's 2.01, Iran's is 2.1, and the other North African countries are at about 2.5 and falling fast.
Many of those countries have sharply increasing populations due to 'demographic intertia' -- the previous high fertility rates have left "bulges" of potential mothers moving up the population pyramid.
But that's a temporary effect; once TFR is below the magic number, population will start to fall. Previous high fertility just delays that by about 25 years.
By the 2030's, the proportion of the world's population in the US will probably be higher than it is now, and increasing sharply (in relative terms). By 2100, barring some drastic upset to present long-term trends, the American proportion could easily be twice what it is now.
Many of the people now posting on this [mailing list] will live to see the world's population smaller than it is now.
Aside giving us one more reason to spit on Paul Ehrlich, this suggests the importance of the "multiculturalism" wars in the Anglosphere.
By 2100, the American complexion will (barring that drastic aspect) be darker than it is now. But that could easily be a change in complexion without a change in the fundamental principles of the U.S. and the Anglosphere.
OTOH, the academic left is wishing with all its might for a gaggle of unassimilated, hyphenated-Americans among which, as they so like to intone, there is no majority group.